Latest Update - April 24th
Paxton Still Leading in Recent Poll
Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) released a poll late last week showing challenger Ken Paxton maintaining – and even growing – the lead over incumbent John Cornyn in the runoff for the Republican nomination for US Senate. The TPOR poll – conducted April 6th-7th among 1,225 likely Republican runoff voters – showed Paxton leading Cornyn by a 48% to 40% margin.
An interesting question posed to the respondents related to who they would support in the general election if their candidate did not win the primary. Nearly one-quarter – 24% -- of Cornyn supporters said they would vote for Democratic nominee James Talarico if Paxton were the Republican nominee. Fewer than 10% of Paxton supporters said they would vote for the Democrat in November. This feeds the narrative pushed by the Cornyn campaign that he should be the nominee due to his more likely favorable showing in November.
The campaign has been nasty, and both candidates have swiped at the other candidate from both a political and personal standpoint. Many in the party – most vocally Lt. Governor Dan Patrick – have called on the two to support the eventual nominee for the November race. Cornyn has pledged to support Paxton and more recently, Paxton has finally relented and committed his support to Cornyn as well. But that doesn’t mean the nastiness won’t continue until the May 26th runoff.
Houston Revises ICE Cooperation Policy
After nearly two weeks of threats from state leaders, partisan bickering, and protests from residents, the city of Houston amended their policy on how city police officers are allowed to interact with federal ICE agents. The original policy adopted by the city council allowed officers when detaining someone to wait no more than 30 minutes for ICE agents to arrive and said officers could only detain someone as long as reasonably necessary to complete the purpose of the original stop or investigation. Due to this, Gov. Abbott threatened to withhold $114 million in grant funds if the city did not revise its policy to allow full cooperation with ICE agents.
After the threat of withholding funds, Houston Mayor John Whitmire led the charge to amend the city’s policy and has long fought the council’s attempts to limit HPD cooperation with ICE, saying the city must follow federal and state laws. The new policy backed by Whitmire and passed by the city council now says HPD officers can detain individuals for “other legitimate purposes discovered during detention”. The language was negotiated between Whitmire and the Governor’s office. During debate on the consideration of the new policy, Whitmire reminded his colleagues that very few state and federal grants come without some sort of conditions, and “the city cannot responsibly put millions of dollars at risk over a fight we are not positioned to win”. After agreeing to the new language, Abbott’s office has given the Houston Police Department until today to formally adopt the new policy, or he will renew the threat to withhold the grant funds.
City of Austin officials are now negotiating with state leaders as well in an attempt to avoid losing $2.5 million in grants due to their policies regarding cooperation with ICE agents. The Austin Police Chief said this week that the $2.5 million could grow to a figure of $20 million when factoring in future grants tied to the ones already designated for Austin. Austin’s policy prohibits officers from arresting anyone solely on a non-criminal warrant issued by ICE. City officials have now said they are negotiating with the Governor’s office to ensure the city receives the grants that are dedicated to funding prevention of terrorist attacks and the processing of sexual assault kits. The Governor’s office gave a deadline of last night (Thursday) to submit refined language before moving to reallocate the funding.
Dallas leaders continue to push back against the threats by the Governor’s office to withhold public safety grants, saying the Governor is playing politics and – in their words – is defunding their police department. The Dallas Police Chief has stood firm that his officers will not conduct immigration investigations and will not partner with ICE agents to detain individuals. Abbott’s office has threatened to withhold $32 million in state funding and to “imperil” another $50 million in federal funding that is intended for safety programs and projects related to the World Cup this summer.
Texas Needs at Least $174 Billion to Avoid a Water Crisis
Texas water planners now estimate the state will need at least $174 billion in water infrastructure investments over the coming decades to avoid a severe water crisis, more than double the estimate issued just four years ago. The updated figure comes from projections tied to the Texas State Water Plan, developed by the Texas Water Development Board (TWBD). The dramatic increase reflects rapid population growth, worsening drought cycles, aging infrastructure, and the escalating costs of major projects. These include desalination plants, reservoirs, pipelines, aquifer storage, and conservation systems.
In 2022, the projected cost was roughly $80 billion. Since then, several major factors have driven the increase. Inflation and construction costs have surged, Texas population growth has accelerated, multi-year drought conditions have exposed vulnerabilities in surface water supplies, major metro areas are planning larger projects, and expanded desalination/brackish groundwater development has been added to planning portfolios. The TWDB’s most recent analysis indicates that without these investments, Texas could face a water shortfall of several million acre-feet annually by 2070.
The forecast is not theoretical, and it is not a “worst-case scenario”. Texas is currently experiencing below-average reservoir levels in multiple regions, continued depletion in aquifers, increased reliance on groundwater during prolonged drought periods, and growing strain on small rural water systems. In West Texas and parts of Central Texas, aquifer levels have dropped substantially over the past decade. In coastal regions like Corpus Christi, saltwater intrusion threatens freshwater supplies. Lawmakers and planners have warned that without immediate aggressive infrastructure development, shortages will disrupt municipal supply, agricultural production, and industrial growth.
The $174 billion funding estimate would include new reservoirs, large-scale pipelines, aquifer storage, recovery projects, brackish groundwater desalination plants, seawater desalination, water recycling systems, conservation initiatives, and infrastructure repair. A significant portion of the projected cost is tied to desalination and long-distance transmission projects, which are both capital and energy intensive. Gov. Abbott has repeatedly framed water security as a top priority, recently calling water infrastructure “critical to Texas’s long-term economic future.” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has also emphasized the urgency of funding large-scale projects, stating that “water is becoming one of the most important issues facing the state.”
Legislative leaders in both chambers have signaled that water funding will be a major focus of the 90th Legislature, especially given the political salience of drought conditions. While the state has allocated billions in recent sessions for water infrastructure, the $174 billion far exceeds current funding commitments and does face challenges. Determining where the funding will come from, balancing urban vs rural needs, protecting people from sharp increases in water bills, and addressing groundwater sustainability alongside surface water expansion are all questions that must be answered. Some lawmakers have floated the idea of a long-term dedicated water fund, similar to the state’s transportation funding model.
Texas’s economy is very deeply tied to reliable water supply. Agriculture, energy production, semiconductor manufacturing, data centers, and municipal growth all depend on stable water access. If investments are not made, municipal water rationing will become more common, agricultural output will decline, industrial expansion could slow, and property values could shift. This is not just an environmental issue, but an economic competitiveness issue as well.
Texas Economy Hits $2.9 Trillion Mark
The 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) for the state of Texas has hit $2.9 trillion according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In real terms, this means the state produced $2.9 trillion worth of goods and services in 2025, capturing the value from all facets of the economy including oil and gas production, legal and professional services, health care, transportation and storage services, and the hospitality industry. Energy continues to lead the way. Texas has the most petroleum refineries and refining capacity in the nation. Texas also leads the nation in oil and natural gas production.
Other industries contributing to the state’s GDP include Texas ports that accounted for nearly $1 trillion in international trade, with the Port of Laredo handling $340 billion worth of goods in 2025. The semiconductor industry has received nearly $7 billion in funding from state and federal sources to manufacture products ranging from memory chips for smart phones to chips that will enhance artificial intelligence.
Texas is home to 54 Fortune 500 company headquarters and more than 3.5 million small businesses.
However – as it often does – good news comes with bad news. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is predicting a slowdown in the rate of the state’s job growth. In a report released earlier this week, the Dallas Fed revised their initial job growth total for 2026 from 280,000 to 206,000, or a growth rate of 1.4% instead of 1.9%. A contributing factor is the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, which has reduced the labor supply. Also, business activity has recently slowed and the Fed’s survey of companies in the state indicates a more cautious attitude regarding future investments due to economic challenges caused by higher fuel and energy prices stemming from the conflict with Iran.
Ten Commandments to Remain in Classrooms
The US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Tuesday that displays of the Ten Commandments can remain in Texas public school classrooms. The legislation passed in 2025 was challenged by 16 different Texas families and advocacy groups such as the ACLU that argued the bill not only violated the doctrine dictating the separation of church and state – but also overrides a parent’s ability to educate children according to their own religious beliefs. Furthermore, many of the plaintiffs claimed the mandate sends a message that school facilities are only for Christians, thus dismissing other religions.
In a 9-8 decision, the Court ruled that the simple display of the Ten Commandments does not dictate “what to believe or how to worship…and punishes no one who rejects the Ten Commandments”. The Court went on to say the displays do not establish a state religion since the only mandate is a display, and not a mandate for the schools to perform religious activities, or the churches to perform a civic function.
The plaintiffs will undoubtedly appeal, and this is likely to be an issue for the US Supreme Court to ultimately decide.
Legislators Tour Camp Mystic
Legislators serving on special committees investigating the July 4th floods that took the lives of 25 children toured Camp Mystic on Monday. This was the first visit by the committee of the exclusive camp for girls located on the Guadalupe River near Kerrville.
Access to the camp is limited due to a restraining order issued in a lawsuit filed by the parents of one of the victims. An initial court hearing on the lawsuit took place last week to review the actions taken by the camp owners and employees and how their actions led to the delayed response and failed evacuation order. The committee is examining the circumstances surrounding the actions that were taken by the camp and at other nearby summer camps during the flooding emergency, and the factors that led to devastation. Subsequently, recommendations will be made to strengthen the state’s role in preparedness and response to flooding and other natural disasters.
Camp Mystic is also under criminal investigation by the Texas Rangers and the Department of State Health Services regarding allegations of neglect and to determine whether laws were broken by the camp relative to their preparedness and response plans. The committees will now meet in Austin to discuss and review their findings on Monday and Tuesday and are expected to issue recommendations later this summer, which will in turn be developed into legislation for consideration during the 2027 session of the legislature.
Camp Mystic on the Guadalupe River will remain closed this summer. Camp owners have applied for a youth camp license for a new location on Cypress Lake, which sits on higher ground and did not experience flooding on July 4th.
Texas Gas Price Tracker and TSA update
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX
According to the most recent data from AAA’s Texas gas price tracker, fuel prices across major Texas metropolitan areas remain relatively moderate but are showing regional variation. The statewide average as of April 23rd sits at $3.60/gallon for regular, $4.44/gallon for premium, and $5.03/gallon for diesel. This does show a decline from last week’s averages, sitting at $3.74/gallon for regular fuel and $5.26/gallon for diesel. Today’s national average for regular fuel sits at $4.03/gallon
Listed below are the city averages in major metro areas across Texas, which have declined slightly from last week’s update:
Austin/San Marcos: $3.58/gallon
Houston: $3.72/gallon
Dallas: $3.48/gallon
San Antonio: $3.52/gallon
El Paso: $3.80/gallon
Corpus Christi: $3.47/gallon
Beaumont/Port Arthur: $3.69/gallon
Pump prices vary regionally, as Western Texas markets tend to be higher, while Gulf Coast and Central Texas averages tend to be lower. Even with recent increases, Texas prices remain less than the national retail average, meaning that Texas drivers are paying comparatively less for fuel. However, fuel prices and airline costs are linked. Rising crude and regular fuel prices often contribute to higher jet fuel costs, which in turn has led to airlines adjusting fare pricing and reducing less profitable routes.
As for TSA & airline operations, airports nationwide are still managing staffing shortages that impact checkpoint staffing and wait times. Slower lines during peak travel periods have prompted adjusted lane openings, modified scheduling by some carriers, and increased coordination with volunteer/part-time personnel.
However, funding for the TSA is once again under serious strain due to a partial federal government shutdown that began in mid-February. The Department of Homeland Security leadership has warned that the emergency funds currently being used to pay TSA workers will be depleted by early May if Congress does not approve a new funding package for the department. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has stated that DHS payroll exceeds $1.6 billion every two weeks, and the temporary funds being tapped to keep TSA personnel paid are nearly exhausted.
These emergency funds, originally appropriated under last year’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, were used to keep paychecks flowing to approximately 50,000 TSA employees during the funding lapse. However, DHS officials have made clear that after the next scheduled paycheck, no additional funds will remain, and another executive order to cover salaries is no longer feasible due to the reserve being depleted. Industry leaders, including the CEO of Airlines for America, a trade group representing major carriers such as American Airlines, Delta, and United, have urged Congress to restore DHS funding quickly to prevent further disruptions.
Efforts have been made in Congress to approve funding packages for most of DHS, and although the Senate unanimously approved a version of such a funding deal, the House has yet to take final action. If funding is not resolved, TSA could be forced back into periods where workers are effectively required to work without pay.
There has also been significant industry buzz this week about a possible merger between American Airlines and United Airlines. However, American Airlines has publicly denied active interest in merging with United, framing the rumors as just speculative instead of strategic. Reports indicate that any discussions were preliminary and not reflective of committed negotiations between the two carriers. Instead, American appears more focused on alliances and partnerships rather than full consolidation. Industry analysts also note that a merger of this scale would face intense regulatory scrutiny on antitrust grounds and could significantly reshape domestic air travel competition if it advanced.
Prediction Market Company Sets up PAC
Prediction market giant Kalshi has entered the Texas political arena by establishing a PAC, giving the company the ability to donate to state level candidates and officeholders. Kalshi is a web-based platform that is used primarily for sports betting and enables participants to predict the outcome of an event through the purchase of a commodities contract – or trade -- as opposed to a direct bet with a sports betting platform.
The argument from Kalshi claims they are different from sports betting since sports betting sites take the opposite side of a wager on which a participant wants to bet. Prediction markets operate as an exchange that allows users on both sides to trade predictions, similar to a stock market.
Participants in prediction markets can also bet on other issues including political races, entertainment awards, and even the timing of battles in the Iran War. There are numerous lawsuits throughout the country challenging the legality of their practices, and the Texas Senate has an interim study charge calling for “the closing of gambling loopholes” that will look directly at the prediction market industry.
In 2025, Kalshi had revenues of $263 million, based on fees from $22.9 billion worth of volume. 89% of the activity with the company was from sports betting.
Three candidates nationwide have been suspended by Kalshi for placing bets on their own races. One of the candidates suspended was Republican Congressional candidate Zeke Enriquez, who was seeking the nomination for Texas Congressional District 21, eventually won by Mark Teixeira. Enriquez was fined $784.20 for placing a $100 bet on the outcome of his own race. Enriquez finished 11th out of 12th candidates. Teixeira won the nomination with 61% of the vote.
Political Notes
Early voting started on Monday for the special election to replace former state Senator Brandon Creighton – Republican from Conroe – who vacated his seat in October to become chancellor of the Texas Tech University System. Former Montgomery County DA Brett Ligon is running on the Republican side against Democrat Ron Angeletti. The district is solidly Republican. In addition, Ligon has the support of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, presiding officer of the Senate. The district runs from Montgomery County east to Port Arthur. Early voting runs through Tuesday and the special election is May 2nd. The winner will serve out the remainder of the term which ends in December. The two candidates are also facing off in November, when voters will decide who will serve the full four-year term.
AG Ken Paxton is suing the Democratic fundraising entity ActBlue saying it has received illegal donations from foreign entities. Furthermore, Paxton alleges ActBlue has continued to receive donations through anonymous prepaid debit cards and gift cards, which are both prohibited by federal law. Paxton is asking the courts to award $1 million in damages against ActBlue to the state of Texas. ActBlue is used by a wide range of Democratic candidates – acting as a central location for donors to easily reach a candidate of their choice -- from local offices up to federal offices. According to its website, it has served more than 23,000 candidates since it was founded in 2024, raising over $19 billion.
What’s Next??
The Joint committees investigating the July 4th floods near Kerville will meet Monday and Tuesday to discuss their findings from this week’s camp tours.
The Senate Water, Agriculture, and Rural Affairs Committee has scheduled a meeting for May 11th, and the Senate Finance Committee has three scheduled meetings this summer to further discuss interim charges.
A full list of all interim committee hearings can be found here: https://www.legis.state.tx.us
Now the campaigns for the runoffs are in full swing. The runoff election is Tuesday, May 26th.